Recap etc.

by smbrannan

Now that all the entries have been compiled and verified (you did double check your entry, right?), I have a few observations. First, every one of our entries is different; there are no duplicates. So every one of us will have a slightly different take on the results as they start coming in.

What we picked

Although none are identical, there is a lot of consistency in our picks. This chart shows how many of us have picked each team to survive the Group Stage (on the website, you can click the image to enlarge).

We are unanimous that 11 countries will advance: ARG, BEL, BRA, COL, ENG, ESP, FRA, GER, MEX, POR, and URU. The next 8 are very close to unanimous, with only 1 or 2 people lacking confidence in CAN, CRO, KOR, MAR, NED, USA, JPN and SUI.

Actually, that’s not very surprising. The strong teams will almost certainly advance. Upsets can and do happen (viz. GER in 2018 and 2022), but the format this year allows 8 of the 12 teams in 3rd place to advance. That’s mainly a money grab by FIFA, but it also reduces the chances of an unexpected elimination at the Group Stage.

We are also unanimous that poor HAI won’t make the cut.

Other than HAI, at least one person has picked every team to advance. It might look brave, but doing well in the pool often depends on picking the upsets. If you just go with the favourites, you are up against the bulk of the other participants. If, on the other hand, you strike out on your own by picking, say, CPV or JOR and things break your way, then you look brilliant.

Your fellow poolers

Only 30 of us are returning from the 2024 Pool. I call this group our Grizzled Veterans. Of the remaining 32, exactly half are complete neophytes, or Newbies. The others are folks who, for one reason or another, missed out on the 2024 Pool, but were in a previous version. Let’s call this group the Prodigals.

Last time out, the Grizzled Vets average score was slightly higher than the Newbies (I didn’t keep track of Prodigals back then). Let’s see how each group does this time. You can tell which group you are in from the list of picks. The initials after your name are for Grizzled Veteran (GV), Newbie (N) or Prodigal (P).

Geographically, the vast majority of us are Canadian residents (but, this being Canada, there are a variety of international backgrounds, of course). Some of these Canucks are taking part with heavy hearts because their ancestral ITA team has failed to qualify for a World Cup since 2014. We also have some participation from the Dutch (both Newbies and Prodigals), a couple folks from the USA and several Spanish residents (both permanent and transient). We even have a newbie from the UK.

Comments

Some of you have already added comments on the website, and I think that is great. I encourage anyone and everyone to chime in at any time. Eventually (or maybe already), you will tire of hearing from me, that’s just natural. It is good to have some different voices. And some of you are much more knowledgeable about soccer/football/fútbol than I am.

This update is already much too long. Thanks for your patience. Talk later.