When an ex-Bank of England governor (Mervyn King) quotes John Maynard Keynes on the topic of English soccer, you know the prospects are bleak.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-08/england-s-world-cup-decline-is-good-for-economy
Here’s a helpful overview of strategy and tactics that we are likely to see at the WC, all in refreshingly plain english.
The answer is: Yes!
There is nothing that the Argentinians would enjoy more than winning the World Cup on their arch-rivals soil, but is it a genuine possibility or a far-fetched dream? Handed the easiest group, Argentina should not even have to move out of second gear in order to top Group E ahead of Iran, Nigeria and Bosnia and Herzegovina. However a question mark still remains over their defence, can their attack always cover for their back four?
It is undeniable that Argentina have one of, if not the best attack in the world at the moment. With the likes of Messi, Aguero, Lavezzi, Higuain and Palacio it is fair to say that the squad is not lacking any attacking talent. In fact it is incredible to think that both Tevez and Nicolás Gaitán both missed the cut for the squad, after they both had terrific seasons for their club teams. Argentina’s hero and…
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We’re not scared of the Death Group
We don’t care about death…
because we’ve beaten death before.
We have about 20 entries so far, which I think is pretty good. If I don’t have yours, don’t procrastinate any longer. Send in your picks today. And recruit your friends and family.
If you are looking for more inspiration, here is some from the masters of the universe. The “GS Probability” column shows Goldman Sachs’ estimate of the likelihood that each team will win the cup. (click on image to enlarge)
Here is Goldman Sachs description of how they came up with these predictions:
At a very high level, our approach is as follows:
- We construct a stochastic model that generates a distribution of outcomes for each of the 64 matches of the 2014 World Cup, from the opener between Brazil and Croatia on June 12 in São Paulo through the final on July 13 in Rio de Janeiro.
- The predictions for each match are based on a regression analysis that uses the entire history of mandatory international football matches—i.e., no friendlies—since 1960. This gives us about 14,000 observations to estimate the coefficients of our model. The dependent variable in the regression analysis is the number of goals scored by each side in each match. Following the literature on modelling football matches, we assume that the number of goals scored by a particular side in a particular match follows a Poisson distribution.
- We generate a probability distribution for the outcome of each game using a Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 draws, using the parameters estimated in the regression analysis described above. We use the results of this simulation analysis to generate the probabilities of teams reaching particular stages of the tournament, up to winning the championship. We use the rounded prediction of the goals scored to determine the outcomes of each game during the group stage and the unrounded forecast to pick the winner in the knockout stage.
- To be clear, our model does not use any information on the quality of teams or individual players that is not reflected in a team’s track record. For example, if a key player who was responsible for a team’s recent successes is injured, this will have no bearing on our predictions. There is also no role for human judgment as the approach is purely statistical.
Use at your own risk.
More gibberish in the full report, here.
Several years ago, and several World Cups ago, someone I know based their picks on which team had the nicest jerseys. I think she did quite well.
In case any of you are looking for help in deciding how to make your selections this time, here is some inspiration.
Here are the links to he entry forms, again…
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| Download the Excel version of the entry form here (much preferred) | WC2014 Entry Form (Excel) |
| Download the PDF version of the form (if you must) | WC2014 Entry Form (PDF) |
.
Is it just me, or is this incredibly lame?
Less that 3 week to go, and your pool entries are starting to trickle in.
There are lots of folks publishing dense analysis of each country’s chances. I like these videos from “Men in Blazers“.
I’m picking Argentina, because… I just want to.
If any of you found that the links to the entry forms weren’t working, please try again.
The links were disabled as a security precaution but should be working now.
Here are the links once again.
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| Download the Excel version of the entry form here (much preferred) | WC2014 Entry Form (Excel) |
| Download the PDF version of the form (if you must) | WC2014 Entry Form (PDF) |
From Scott Adams
Did you see the story about the Brazilian soccer fan that threw a toilet from the stands and killed another fan? As the article says, there are “many questions to be answered.” I’d like to get the ball rolling with a few questions of my own.
Read the rest here: http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/cause_of_death_wtf/
Brazil, when stars were entertaining June,
We stood beneath an amber moon
And softly murmured someday soon…
We kissed and clung together
Then – tomorrow was another day
The morning found us miles away
With still a million things to say.
And now, when twilight dims the skies above
Recalling thrills of our love
There’s one thing I’m certain of…
Return, I will, to old Brazil.
Hey folks…. remember those halcyon Euro Cup days, 2 years ago when we all agreed to meet back here? Me neither, but here we go anyway.
I’m pleased to announce the 2014 World Cup pool : Brazil edition. With a little luck, the stadia will be ready, the favelas will be pacified, and we’ll all have a bit of fun. This time, no time zone issues to contend with. We can enjoy in real time.
The fixtures begin on Thursday, 12 June 2014. The final is on Sunday, 13 July.
Here’s the deal….. Read the rest of this entry »
Everything I know about morality and the obligations of men, I owe it to football.
― Albert Camus
People will talk about the first half of this game for 30 or 40 years’ time. I don’t think I’ve seen anything as good. They were picking the passes, making the angles and playing it with such pace.
― Alan Hansen (Match of the Day)
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne’er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remember’d;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.
― William Shakespeare (Henry V)
OK that last quote has nothing to do with soccer, but reading some of the reaction to the Spanish victory today you’d think that it was an event as singular as Agincourt. Perhaps it was. We shall see.
The complete final pool standings are here, and 1st and 2nd prizes go to Mauricio and Sofia.
| Mauricio C | 29 |
| Sofia I | 27 |
| Carl C | 25 |
| Dan E | 25 |
| Ken S | 25 |
| Mark A | 25 |
| Aidan G | 24 |
| Craig B1 | 24 |
| Donna M | 24 |
| Cindy B1 | 23 |
| Joe P | 23 |
| Yan F | 23 |
Congratulations to Mauricio C and Sofia I for their brilliant team selection. Final prizes are:
| Mauricio C | $235.00 |
| Sofia I | $117.50 |
| Joe P | $107.50 |
| Sean G | $5.00 |
| Sherman H | $5.00 |
| Grand Total | $470.00 |
I will do an email transfer to the email address each winner supplied with the entry forms, unless you would prefer an alternative. Just let me know.
And finally, here are the group results. After a strong start, the CIBC Drones fell apart at the end, finishing dead last behind the Normal People. Kudos to the Other FI Slaves. Now, all of you, get back to work.
| CIBC Drones | Other FI Slaves | Normal People | |
| Avg Score | 17.7 | 21.1 | 17.8 |
That’s a wrap for the 2012 Euro Cup Pool. I have really enjoyed organizing this, I hope it was at least a little entertaining for you.
If you want to do it all over again for the World Cup in Brazil 2014, just let me know. The comments button below is working. Who knows, it might be fun.
Football is a matter of life and death, except more important.
Bill Shankly
Sorry for the delay. The complete updated standings are here, and here are the leaders…
| Sofia I | 27 |
| Dan E | 25 |
| 24 | |
| 23 | |
| 23 | |
| Mauricio C | 23 |
| 22 | |
| 22 | |
| 21 | |
| 21 |
As before, anyone who can’t get any more points because their picks have been eliminated are stroked-out. So it is all down to Sofia, Dan, and Mauricio. Good luck to all of you.
Here’s what I believe:
Here’s what we know for sure:
Bad news for the CIBC Drones, I’m afraid. The Normal People have edged ahead. Both groups are still well back of the Other FI Slaves.
| CIBC Drones | Other FI Slaves | Normal People | |
| Avg Score | 16.8 | 18.7 | 17.0 |
I was out at Colin’s graduation last night so can’t publish the complete standings yet. Full update coming soon.
If ESP beats ITA on Sunday, Mauricio C takes 1st place and Sofia I comes in second.
If ITA wins, Sofia comes 1st, and Dan E is the runner-up.
Either way, Joe P takes 3rd place for his Group Stage score.
Young Italian fan sends a message to Angela Merkel when ITA upsets GER in the Euro 2012 semi-finals
Ronaldo reacts to POR losing to ESP in Euro 2012 semi-finals
Here are the point leaders after yesterday’s ESP-POR marathon.
| Donna M | 24 |
| Sofia I | 24 |
| Cindy B1 | 23 |
| 23 | |
| Casey&Leanne T | 22 |
| Dan E | 22 |
| Richard H | 22 |
| Bogie O | 21 |
| Vik K | 21 |
| 20 | |
| Kelly G | 20 |
| Mauricio C | 20 |
| Sam S | 20 |
Joe P and Greg W have both run out of opportunities as the teams they picked to win today and in the final have already been eliminated. So, no soup for you!!
And there is significant action in the group results. CIBC Drones and the Normal People are now tied.
| CIBC Drones | Other FI Slaves | Normal People | |
| Avg Score | 16.5 | 18.7 | 16.5 |
Hmm… maybe we are normal after all.
The England shirt is the precise opposite of a superhero costume, turning men with extraordinary abilities into mild-mannered guys next door. Were Stephen Fry to pull it on, he would struggle to string a sentence together. Were Lucian Freud to slip it over his head he would turn his easel round to reveal a childlike scribble of a cat.”
Marina Hyde
ESP, GER, ITA and POR advance to the semi-finals. Just like in real life, GER is staring down the European periphery.
It was pretty obvious that this would happen. . . except for the fact that only one participant actually predicted it. Congratulations Donna M who moves into first place! Clearly we have an expert in our midst.
The race for first place has opened up a bit, with 8 of you sharing the top 5 scores. Here is the leaderboard, going into the semis. It is still too close to call. This will be an interesting week, I’m sure. Everyone’s results are linked here.
| Donna M | 24 |
| Joe P | 23 |
| Sofia I | 21 |
| Cindy B1 | 20 |
| Casey&Leanne T | 19 |
| Dan E | 19 |
| Ray W | 19 |
| Richard H | 19 |
We even have a bit of a race going on at the other end of the standings. Sean G and Sherman H are neck-and-neck for the mercy prize, with 9 points each. But there is still hope, if that is the right word, that if GER wins the semis then Sherman and Sean will move out of the cellar.
Finally, there has been a shift in the group results. The CIBC Drones have fallen behind, and the Other FI Slaves are now have a healthy lead. The Normal People are still behind, but closing in.
| CIBC Drones | Other FI Slaves | Normal People | |
| Avg Score | 15.2 | 16.6 | 14.8 |
That’s it for now. Back after the semi-finals.
Thanks to Richard H for this.
The Beautiful Pool 